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Top 3 Trends from our Fall 2022 Residential Mortgage Industry Report

November 30, 2022

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The Residential Mortgage Industry report provides an economic analysis of the residential mortgage industry in Canada. It reviews the latest data on insured and uninsured mortgages from all lender types and provides details on emerging trends in the Canadian residential mortgage industry.

Using the latest data available, the Fall 2022 Report indicated:

  • After increasingly opting for variable rates, more than half of Canadian homeowners chose fixed-rate mortgages.
  • Some people are having a hard time getting loans from regular banks due to stricter rules and higher interest rates. Alternative lenders are a growing market for these people.
  • Mortgage loans for property purchases decreased by 5.5% and refinanced mortgages decreased by a whopping 13.3%.

More than half of homeowners in Canada opt for fixed-rate mortgages

The gap between homeowners choosing variable-rate and fixed-rate mortgages has been closing. Since June 2022, federally regulated financial institutions have lent more funds for new and renewed mortgages under fixed-rate agreements than variable-rate agreements: 55% of recent mortgage borrowers opted for a fixed-term mortgage.

Figure 1: Increasing discounts on variable rate mortgages boost mortgage consumers interest for these rates

Sources: Statistics Canada. Table 10-10-0006-01 Funds advanced, outstanding balances, and interest rates for new and existing lending, Bank of Canada; CMHC calculations

Text version (Figure 1)

Increasing discounts on variable rate mortgages boost mortgage consumers interest for these rates
Discount on variable rates Share of mortgages with variable interest rates
2013 -42.7% 10.1%
2013 -43.0% 9.6%
2013 -46.8% 9.2%
2013 -52.0% 8.4%
2013 -50.0% 8.7%
2013 -51.8% 8.4%
2013 -26.3% 12.4%
2013 3.2% 16.4%
2013 27.5% 21.5%
2013 44.7% 28.0%
2013 53.5% 33.3%
2013 50.8% 33.8%
2014 55.5% 33.3%
2014 50.0% 31.9%
2014 38.8% 29.2%
2014 23.0% 24.7%
2014 20.8% 23.9%
2014 18.8% 24.6%
2014 18.0% 23.6%
2014 18.5% 23.5%
2014 17.5% 24.3%
2014 20.5% 24.5%
2014 26.3% 29.2%
2014 29.5% 30.1%
2015 40.0% 33.3%
2015 37.8% 38.6%
2015 31.3% 36.3%
2015 22.3% 32.0%
2015 19.5% 29.5%
2015 19.3% 29.3%
2015 35.0% 31.9%
2015 42.3% 37.9%
2015 46.0% 39.3%
2015 46.0% 37.2%
2015 36.5% 32.3%
2015 26.0% 26.6%
2016 15.5% 25.2%
2016 6.8% 23.0%
2016 -11.8% 20.0%
2016 -20.3% 17.4%
2016 -30.3% 16.4%
2016 -24.5% 17.4%
2016 -19.3% 18.5%
2016 -16.8% 18.3%
2016 -14.3% 18.1%
2016 -11.5% 17.9%
2016 -14.0% 14.7%
2016 -14.5% 12.7%
2017 -3.0% 14.9%
2017 9.0% 18.3%
2017 11.0% 20.7%
2017 13.8% 22.3%
2017 11.8% 24.3%
2017 10.0% 23.4%
2017 -14.8% 16.1%
2017 0.2% 15.7%
2017 -8.8% 15.0%
2017 -2.0% 13.4%
2017 17.3% 17.3%
2017 25.3% 19.3%
2018 9.5% 17.0%
2018 7.5% 15.1%
2018 8.7% 16.9%
2018 16.8% 20.5%
2018 41.0% 26.0%
2018 70.0% 44.1%
2018 43.0% 42.6%
2018 43.0% 38.6%
2018 39.3% 33.4%
2018 23.3% 30.3%
2018 23.5% 24.8%
2018 20.0% 22.0%
2019 16.5% 22.8%
2019 2.3% 21.0%
2019 -15.5% 18.6%
2019 -42.0% 14.2%
2019 -59.8% 11.0%
2019 -80.8% 8.1%
2019 -99.5% 6.8%
2019 -109.3% 6.1%
2019 -120.3% 5.5%
2019 -118.8% 5.0%
2019 -100.5% 5.5%
2019 -95.5% 6.2%
2020 -85.0% 6.9%
2020 -89.5% 7.4%
2020 33.3% 14.7%
2020 46.5% 23.5%
2020 25.3% 24.6%
2020 18.8% 23.9%
2020 14.0% 25.3%
2020 7.5% 25.7%
2020 2.7% 23.6%
2020 -2.3% 23.0%
2020 -3.0% 22.8%
2020 0.8% 24.1%
2021 7.0% 24.7%
2021 13.8% 25.3%
2021 29.0% 27.7%
2021 41.8% 36.1%
2021 49.8% 42.7%
2021 54.5% 45.2%
2021 66.3% 51.0%
2021 68.3% 54.3%
2021 71.3% 54.1%
2021 70.3% 53.9%
2021 81.0% 52.4%
2021 95.3% 54.5%
2022 106.0% 56.9%
2022 118.5% 55.0%
2022 107.0% 55.5%
2022 75.3% 53.2%
2022 75.0% 51.2%
2022 41.3% 49.2%
2022 -15.3% 47.4%
2022 49.0% 44.2%

So far in 2022, consumers who have opted for fixed-rate mortgages have favoured shorter-term commitments — less than 5 years — versus mortgages of 5 years or more.

Alternative lenders — a growing market 

Stricter mortgage rules coupled with rapidly increasing interest rates make it harder for some mortgage borrowers to get a loan from conventional lenders. This means fewer mortgage borrowers can switch from an alternative lender to a conventional one at their loan term.

We see a larger share of mortgage borrowers renewing their loans in the alternative lending space — either with the same alternative lender or another. As it becomes increasingly challenging to qualify under the current interest rate environment, 1 in 3 mortgage borrowers renews with an alternative lender.

About 70% of mortgage borrowers had an effective exit strategy. This is lower than in 2020 and 2021 when this figure was stable at 72%. This recent drop was also because fewer properties sold at loan term.

As these mortgage borrowers stay in the alternative lending space for a longer time — and pay higher interest rates — housing affordability is an issue for them.

Mortgages drop for both property purchases and refinancing

The most recent data show a decrease in new mortgage originations. This is because of:

  • economic uncertainty
  • rising interest rates
  • inflationary pressure 

As interest rates increased and housing markets cooled, mortgage loans for property purchases dropped by 5.5%. Refinanced mortgages had the most significant decrease at 13.3%!

Chartered banks originated $191 billion worth of mortgage loans. This is a 7.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2021.

Non-bank mortgage lenders such as credit unions, mortgage finance companies and mortgage investment entities issued $110 billion worth of mortgage loans. This is a more than 23% drop compared to the same period in 2021.

Figure 2: Mortgage originations drop for both insured and uninsured mortgages

Source: CMHC residential mortgage data reporting of NHA MBS issuers; CMHC calculations

Text version (Figure 2)

Mortgage originations drop for both insured and uninsured mortgages
2020 Q1 – Q2 2021 Q1 – Q2 2022 Q1 – Q2
Insured 22 26 22
Uninsured 48 103 100
Insured 1 2 1
Uninsured 39 55 48
Insured 50 39 22
Uninsured 57 64 51
Insured 2 2 1
Uninsured 14 20 19

See the full Residential Mortgage Industry Report for all industry trends and findings from our research.

Download the report (PDF)

Explore the data

Access the data by using our interactive mortgage — dashboard to discover the insights that are relevant to you. The Residential Mortgage Industry Data Dashboard is a digital interactive companion to the Residential Mortgage Industry Report.

Related links:

  • The road ahead for the economy and housing — fall 2022 update
  • Alternative lenders series

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Date Published: November 30, 2022

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