Housing Market Outlook 2026

British Columbia’s labour market expected to recover in 2026, but demographic factors will weigh on housing markets

British Columbia’s (B.C.) economy is expected to improve in 2026 after limited growth in 2025. As forecasted in our Housing Market Outlook summer 2025 update, a weak labour market and trade volatility were the main factors impacting B.C.’s economy in 2025.

In 2026, employment conditions will improve with unemployment trending lower and labour force growth slowing. However, slower public sector job growth is likely to limit some of this recovery, keeping unemployment rates historically high. Wage growth is expected to pick up as the labour market tightens, after slowing in 2025.

We expect B.C. to experience a smaller negative impact from global trade volatility compared to other provinces with larger manufacturing sectors. U.S. lumber tariffs and weaker U.S. homebuilding activity may affect the softwood lumber industry, but these impacts will likely be limited to Northern and Interior markets, rather than the Lower Mainland and South Coast.

The sectors tied to technology and professional services have been B.C.’s fastest growing over the past decade (Figure 1). We expect these sectors to play an even larger role in the coming years. Employment and investment in these sectors will drive some housing demand, especially in major urban centres.

International migration to B.C. will continue to decline in 2026, as seen in 2025. This decline is largely due to slower non-permanent resident flows. As a result, rental and investor demand will be impacted, limiting resale activity. On the other hand, improving affordability in Vancouver and Victoria over the past year will reduce the number of people leaving these regions for other parts of B.C. and other provinces.

Slower rental demand and rising costs will decrease new home starts

New home construction in B.C. markets will trend lower in 2026, following strong activity in the apartment segment in 2025. This will be a departure from our summer forecast, where we forecasted a slight increase in 2026. New home construction will continue to decrease later in the forecast period, due to weak supply and demand.

Apartment construction in urban centres across the province has been strong in recent years, driven by favourable policy and financing incentives for rental supply and consistent demand. However, construction conditions have become increasingly difficult, with builders citing rising costs as a significant barrier for new construction.

A significant decline in condominium presales, in Vancouver and Victoria, has stalled many planned projects. We expect more condominium projects to be postponed or cancelled in 2026, with these effects extending into 2027 and 2028.

Rental construction will also start to slow in the second half of 2026, as developers respond to higher vacancy rates and slower rent growth that we observed in our 2025 Rental Market Report. While many projects currently in the pipeline will contribute to housing starts in 2026, we expect a continuous slowdown in project proposals and construction into 2028. Similar to condominium construction, developers face challenges from high material and regulatory costs, weaker rent growth and slower absorptions, making new rental projects increasingly difficult.

Ground-oriented construction, representing single-detached, semi-detached and townhomes, will stay relatively stable in 2026, with some growth expected in 2027 and 2028. While single-detached will continue to be weak in the Vancouver CMA, these homes will still be in demand, especially in more affordable regions like Victoria and Abbotsford. At the same time, demand for denser ground-oriented homes will increase in the Vancouver CMA, as they offer a more affordable option.

Resales are expected to increase moderately in 2026

After a historically weak 2025, the resale markets in Vancouver and Victoria will show some recovery in 2026. However, this rebound will likely remain below historical averages. Since our summer Housing Market Outlook update, resale markets have remained persistently weak. Despite lower mortgage rates in 2025, a weaker labour market and ongoing economic uncertainty kept resales slow. High accumulated listings and a softer rental market also contributed to this slowdown.

A stronger labour market and continued low mortgage rates will support more resales in 2026. Expectations of interest rate increases in 2027 may prompt some waiting buyers to enter the market sooner. Improved affordability for higher-priced homes will boost resales, but entry-level home prices are expected to stay steady.

Sales growth will likely slow in 2027 and 2028 in Vancouver and Victoria due to ongoing demographic and pricing challenges. Softer rental markets will dampen individual investor activity, especially in the condominium market.

Average prices supported by rebound in activity, but growth will be limited

Resale prices are expected to rise moderately in 2026, supported by higher sales as markets shift toward more balanced conditions. Beyond 2026, price growth will likely remain low, with average prices unlikely to reach the highs seen in recent years. Rising mortgage rates expected in 2027 will limit increases in borrowing capacity (Figure 2), further limiting price growth during that time and beyond.

Despite a slower resale environment, prices in Vancouver and Victoria have remained relatively stable, especially compared to declines in Toronto. This stability will likely persist, but price adjustments are expected in specific higher-priced areas and home types within these regions. Recent price declines and lower mortgage rates have made ownership more favourable. Some current renters will be more incentivized to transition to homeownership over the next year, as the gap between owning costs and renting costs shrink (Figure 3).

Prices in urban areas will remain stronger than those further away. Efforts to bring employees back to offices will increase demand for homes closer to city centres. Meanwhile, improved affordability in areas further from urban centres will slow interprovincial population outflows, supporting some demand in those regions.

The mix of homes sold will also support average prices. With a large supply of condominiums expected to be completed in the next year, those entering the resale market will likely have higher prices, which will help support average prices. However, real appreciation of homes is unlikely to fully recover from recent declines.

Rental markets will see elevated vacancies maintained for 2026

Vacancies rose sharply in 2025 in most centres across the province, with Vancouver reaching its highest levels in over 30 years. We expect these elevated vacancy rates to persist in 2026 into 2028. Recent changes to immigration policy have reduced rental demand across the province, while many new rental units are set to be completed in the next few years.

We expect international migration to remain slower over the next few years, at least until 2028. Since migrants are a primary source of demand for rental units in major centres, the uptake of new rental inventory will likely stay below previous levels. Youth unemployment will also be a significant factor. High unemployment rates are preventing many young people from entering the rental market, leading them to either share housing with a roommate or stay with their parents. As the economy recovers, delayed household formations could lead to an increase in rental demand.

High vacancies will keep average rent growth slow. As we saw in 2025, average rent growth was at the lowest rate we’d seen in over a decade, outside of the pandemic period. Rent growth on turnover is likely to continue slowing, while rent increases for existing tenancies will likely be close to zero. However, the influx of newly completed rental units expected to enter the rental market will raise average rents due to their higher prices.

Affordability will continue to improve as rent growth remains stalled and renters have more options available.

This forecast is subject to risks

Resale markets in B.C may experience extended downturns in both price and volume, if labour markets do not meaningfully improve in the next year. In that scenario, prices will likely remain flat or move lower to adjust for lower demand. Mortgage rates rising more and earlier than expected will also negatively impact resale activity in the province.

The current cross-border and international trade environment adds risk to the forecast. If more negative outcomes to trade are imposed on B.C specific exports like lumber and energy, local economies will be impacted. Similarly, changes to domestic policy in the United States may impact purchasing behaviours and rental demand of dual citizens and cross-border workers.

On the other hand, if international migration patterns reverse, and inflows return to historical averages, housing demand will increase, especially for rental markets. This would lead to lower vacancy rates and higher rent growth.

Resale activity in the Vancouver CMA will recover moderately in 2026 after the slowest resale rate in over 20 years. While sales activity will see moderate growth later in 2027 and 2028, it will remain below the 10-year average throughout the forecast period.

This recovery will likely be concentrated in areas closer to the city centre, where prices have remained resilient over the past year, especially for apartment condominiums. On the other hand, newer condominiums south of the Fraser may require further price adjustments before sales improve. The push for employees to return to the office is a key factor driving this difference.

For ground-oriented attached homes, such as semi-detached and townhomes, North Fraser communities like Coquitlam are expected to perform well due to their competitive pricing and commuting distance from downtown. Price growth of single-detached homes across the region will be limited due to their high levels, but these prices are unlikely to decline further as many have already reverted to 2021 levels.

New home construction for ground-oriented housing will follow similar geographical patterns in the resale market. In the City of Vancouver, new single-detached construction will continue to be rare, with existing homes being replaced by semi-detached or denser housing types. Multiplex construction will continue but may slow as opposition to these forms grows in some Metro Vancouver cities. Construction of more common forms, like townhomes, will grow moderately over the next few years.

Declining apartment starts will be the main driver in lower total starts over the forecast period. Weak condominium apartment sales in recent years and uncertainty about future price growth have significantly slowed presales. With very few presales, developers will find it difficult to proceed with new condominium projects, resulting in limited apartment condominium starts over the next 2 years.

We also expect the recent trend of growth in rental apartment construction to decline in the second half of 2026. Softer rental market conditions throughout Metro Vancouver will make it harder for projects to move past the planning stages as viability becomes more difficult. While some municipal governments, like the City of Vancouver, are proposing policies to reduce development cost charges and boost apartment construction, these changes are unlikely to result in housing starts until late in 2027.

Vacancies will remain high as record numbers of under-construction rental apartments are completed over the next 3 years. Most of these units are concentrated in and near the City of Vancouver, where demand for rental homes closer to the downtown core will meet some of this supply. Rent growth in Metro Vancouver will continue to be limited. Some landlords may lower asking rents or offer incentives to compete with the growing availability of supply. As a result, rental affordability will continue to improve over the next 3 years.

Source: Greater Vancouver REALTORS, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Sales activity in the Victoria CMA is expected to recover modestly in 2026 after slowing in late 2025. This recovery will be supported by low interest rates and buyer urgency ahead of anticipated rate hikes in 2027. This rebound will provide some near-term momentum in 2026. However, growth is expected to soften through 2027 and 2028 as slower population growth and labour market challenges begin to reduce demand.

Elevated inventory levels will give buyers more options, with many delaying purchases in hopes of further price moderation. Price growth will increase slightly in 2026, driven by improved sales activity, before stabilizing over the rest of the forecast period. While Victoria’s market has avoided the significant softening seen in larger centres, growing new-home inventory and economic uncertainty will limit the upside potential of price growth.

We forecast housing starts to rise in 2026, marking another year of growth. However, this momentum will slow through 2027 and 2028 as developers take a more cautious approach amid softening market conditions. Rising interest rates and potential tariffs on building materials will add cost pressures, further constraining project viability.

Apartment construction will continue to drive new supply, with starts increasing in 2026 before moderating later in the forecast period. Government incentives and a structural shift toward higher-density housing continue to support this segment, but weak condominium demand and softening rental market conditions will limit large projects.

Ground-oriented construction will only increase marginally in 2026, as developers pivot away from lower-density construction. Elevated unabsorbed inventory, particularly in row and semi-detached units, combined with softer demand, will discourage new starts in this segment.

We expect rental market conditions to soften further in 2026. A significant number of new purpose-built rental units will be completed, adding to supply at a time when demand is weakening. Declining asking rents and increased incentives from landlords reflect growing competition for tenants, particularly in higher-priced units. Slower population growth and labour market weakness will continue to challenge rental demand, improving affordability over the next 3 years.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

The Prairies are entering a period of near-term economic slowdown

The Prairies are entering a period of slower economic growth as the rapid labour force and population gains from 2022 – 2024 begin to ease (Figure 1). Slower international migration through 2027 is expected to contribute to this moderation. Regional gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow, and labour market conditions remain uneven across the Prairies. Public sector hiring has supported job growth in Manitoba and parts of Saskatchewan, particularly in Regina. However, higher levels of part-time employment and youth unemployment continue to weigh on overall labour market conditions.

Trade disruptions and agricultural tariffs remain key risks, especially for Manitoba. Alberta and Saskatchewan face limited exposure to U.S. tariffs because most of their primary exports comply with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). In contrast, Manitoba is more vulnerable. A significant portion of Manitoba’s agricultural exports is directed to the U.S. and China, leaving the province more exposed to external shocks. U.S. tariffs have likely weakened confidence and activity in Manitoba’s U.S.-reliant industries.

Resale activity across the Prairies will remain uneven

The resale market in the Prairies is expected to see mixed trends over the near term, even with lower borrowing costs.

• Calgary: Resales are expected to cool from recent peaks due to a limited supply of lower-priced affordable units and labour market challenges. Listings are expected to skew toward higher price points, keeping lower-priced supply tight.
• Edmonton: The market is expected to remain resilient despite a modest decline, supported by its relative affordability of homeownership compared to other major CMAs. This will continue to drive entry level demand. Edmonton’s broader inventory of lower- and mid-priced homes is expected to bring greater balance to the market.
• Saskatoon: Elevated sales are expected to continue, supported by strong absorption of ground-oriented units. Active listings are declining and will remain low.
• Regina: Sales are expected to grow modestly, supported by full-time hiring and established immigrant communities.
• Winnipeg: Sales are projected to stay at an elevated level in 2026, driven by recent population growth and improved borrowing capacity. However, sales will moderate afterward as pent-up demand decreases.

Housing starts to ease as developers remain cautious amid changing market conditions

Housing starts across the Prairies will stabilize from recent surges, despite continued strength in ground-oriented units in all CMAs except Regina. While purpose‑built rental construction remains elevated, it is expected to moderate as vacancy rates rise and leasing conditions change. Ground‑oriented housing continues to account for a significant share of new starts across markets, but apartment share is gaining momentum, particularly in Calgary and Edmonton (Figure 2). However, increased construction in recent years, combined with slowing population growth, rising costs and increasing rental vacancies is reducing developer risk appetite in Calgary. As a result, developers are focusing on completing existing projects rather than starting a new one. Uncertainty around the potential repeal of citywide upzoning is also delaying new project starts in Calgary.

Across the Prairies, new rental supply is outpacing demand, increasing vacancies and slowing rent growth

The rental market in the Prairies is expected to soften over the forecast period as new supply outpaces demand. This trend is driven by rising rental stock and slowing immigration-driven demand.

In Calgary and Edmonton, targeted programs and incentives, such as the Housing Accelerator Fund, have accelerated rental supply. Attractive financing options and government supports have contributed to growth in the Regina, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg markets. However, builders in most markets are slowing new starts to improve lease-up prospects and limit vacancy growth. Purpose-built rental supply is expected to rise, driven by high numbers of units under construction, project completions and policy incentives.

Across the Prairies, rents are expected to continue rising in nominal terms but at a slower pace. Landlords are increasingly offering incentives, giving tenants more options and greater bargaining power. Meanwhile, policy-driven rental stock expansion may shift some condominium units back to ownership in Winnipeg.

Energy sector weakness and tariff challenges pose risks to the outlook

A key risk to the Prairies’ economic outlook comes from potential weakness in the energy sector and tariff challenges. The energy sector is expected to continue supporting growth in 2026 in Alberta, but softer oil prices will likely slow the pace of new drilling and capital spending in the industry.

Furthermore, recent political development in Venezuela’s oil sector have reintroduced a potential risk for Alberta, as increased production could compete with Canadian oil. However, rebuilding Venezuela’s production capacity will take time, limiting immediate effects.

Total housing starts in Calgary will remain high in 2026 but will ease from the recent surge. Ground-oriented starts are projected to decline modestly, while condominium apartments construction is expected to slow more noticeably.

Developers will proceed cautiously, prioritizing the completion of existing projects as inventories rise. Economic uncertainty, and potential changes to land use approvals, as the policy environment around blanket rezoning evolves, will also influence their decisions. Purpose-built rental construction will likely remain high in the near term but is expected to moderate over time as vacancy rates rise and lease-up periods lengthen.

Calgary’s resale market will moderate further over the forecast period due to cautious buyer behaviour amid economic uncertainty, and limited supply of lower-priced homes. The spring market will remain active, supported by more affordable options in the multi-unit segment, lower borrowing costs and slightly positive consumer confidence.

New listings have reached over 10-year highs and are expected to remain elevated as sellers take advantage of strong prices and previously hesitant homeowners return to the market. However, most new listings will be concentrated at higher price points. Average prices will grow modestly, driven by sustained demand and a larger share of higher-priced homes. Most of the price gains will come from detached homes, while condominium prices will stay flat or decline slightly.

Calgary’s rental market will continue softening as a large volume of purpose-built rental units enter the market. Vacancies are projected to rise further as supply outpaces moderating demand from slower population growth. However, the pace of vacancy growth will slow as the market moves toward balance.

Average rents are likely to rise at a moderate pace over the forecast period, particularly for 2-bedroom units, supported by sustained demand and higher-priced new supply. Rental incentives will remain common in the near term as landlords face increased competition.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Edmonton’s resale market will remain resilient, despite a modest decline in activity in 2026. The city’s relative affordability compared to other CMAs, combined with lower borrowing costs, will continue to attract buyers, particularly first-time buyers. At the same time, slower population growth and some upward pressure on unemployment will limit stronger price increases.

New listings will stay high, supported by greater supply of lower- and mid-priced homes. Buyers will continue to benefit from increased choice, particularly in the multi-unit segment. Average prices will rise modestly over the forecast period, with detached and semi-detached homes seeing moderate gains, while condominium prices will grow more slowly.

Housing starts in Edmonton will decline moderately from recent peaks over the forecast period. Edmonton’s homeownership remains relatively affordable. As a result, ground-oriented housing will continue accounting for a large share of new starts, reflecting ongoing demand. Apartment construction, largely driven by purpose-built rental projects, is expected to remain stable in the near term.

Purpose-built rental construction is forecast to be supported by steady rental demand, relatively lower development costs and greater affordability. However, builders are likely to respond cautiously to rising inventories, slower population growth and a more competitive rental market.

The rental market will soften with rising vacancies and slower rent growth as more supply enters the market. More supply and slower population growth mean new units will take longer to lease and competition among landlords will increase. Average rents will rise with the addition of more expensive supply entering the market. Overall, rent growth will slow due to rising vacancy rates and more competition. Rental incentives are likely to continue, particularly in newer buildings and higher-priced segments.

Municipal efforts to increase zoning flexibility, speed up approvals and fund infrastructure for multi-unit developments are supporting construction activity. These measures are likely to improve market balance over the longer term.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Regina’s resale market will grow modestly over the forecast period, with moderate sales and price increases compared to the strong historical levels seen recently. Slower population growth in 2026 and weaker economic conditions will temper demand. However, full-time hiring, public administration employment and a growing number of longer-established immigrants will continue to support homeownership demand.

Active listings will stay low relative to demand, keeping inventories of ground-oriented homes tight. Average prices are projected to rise moderately with limited supply and steady ownership demand.

Consistent with our recent forecast, total housing starts will increase in 2026 even after the 2025 surge. They are then expected to grow modestly over the remainder of forecast period. Ground-oriented starts will decline in 2026 due to weaker demand resulting from softer economic conditions and slower population growth.

Apartment starts will rise, supported by government rental incentives and developer optimism about a rental market recovery in 2027. However, slower population growth, weaker youth employment and softer rental demand will moderate expansion.

Regina’s rental market will loosen gradually as vacancy rates rise from historically low levels. Rental demand will grow slowly due to weaker youth labour market conditions and lower immigration.

Developers will navigate near-term rental softness and will adjust new supply as conditions improve in 2027 – 2028. In the near term, supply will outpace demand, causing vacancy rates to rise gradually and leading to more incentives from landlords. While rents are still expected to grow, the pace of increases will slow compared to recent rapid growth due to weaker demand and higher supply.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Total housing starts in Saskatoon will grow slowly and steadily in 2026. Apartment starts will increase moderately, while ground-to oriented starts are expected remain stable at near recent elevated levels.

Ground-oriented starts are supported by Saskatoon's relatively younger demographic profile as well as longer-established immigrants moving into homeownership even as overall economic growth moderates. Apartment starts are sustained by policy incentives and developer plans despite weakening rental demand from declining immigration and elevated youth unemployment. Builders are likely to slow the pace of apartment rental starts in 2027 – 28 to limit upward pressure on vacancy.

Saskatoon’s resale market had a very strong year for sales in 2025. Ownership demand has remained resilient to ongoing demographic and trade-related uncertainty. Sales are likely to stay high with modest growth. Average prices are projected to grow moderately over the forecast period.

Saskatoon is expected to see continued growth in purpose-built rental supply in 2026, driven by many projects nearing completion, units under construction, government incentives and apartment starts.

Rental demand will grow slowly in 2026 due to lower immigration and weak employment conditions for younger workers. However, supply is likely to outpace demand, leading to higher vacancy rates from their recent lows. Rent growth will continue, but at a slower pace than in recent years, with landlords offering more incentives to attract tenants.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Winnipeg’s housing starts this year exceeded our expectations from our summer update. Housing starts in Winnipeg reached an elevated level in 2025. They will remain high over the forecast period. Strong- single-detached activity and continued rental apartment construction are driving this trend.

Demand for ground-oriented starts, particularly single-detached homes, will remain strong due to pent‑up ownership demand and improved borrowing conditions. Tight resale market conditions will encourage developers to move forward with more ownership projects. Recent zoning reforms, introduced in June 2025, will also enable more multi‑unit infill developments in established neighbourhoods.

Sales in 2025 aligned with our expectations and are expected to remain elevated in 2026. This is due to the delayed impact of record population growth in earlier years and improved borrowing capacity. Beyond 2026, sales are expected to moderate as pent-up demand fades and population growth slows. This will limit resale price growth compared to the increases seen in 2025.

Winnipeg’s rental market will continue softening, with vacancies rising and rent growth slowing. Rental demand in Winnipeg is heavily influenced by immigration, particularly non-permanent residents. Reduced immigration through 2027 will continue to impact rental demand.

The rental stock is expected to grow, supported by government policies and programs including the provincial Rental Housing Construction Incentive, favourable financing and multi-unit infill projects enabled by zoning reforms. Increased competition from higher purpose-built supply may push some condominium rental units to re-enter the ownership market, where demand remains strong.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Existing home sales are poised to grow as the economic challenges of the past year fade

Trade tensions have hurt key industries in Ontario, like automotive and metals, leading to reduced business investment, fewer job opportunities and cautious homebuyers. However, these pressures should gradually ease over our forecast period which will help to support local resale markets as consumers' confidence improves.

Fiscal and monetary supports are now set to mitigate tariff impacts and lead to further job growth in industries such as finance, technology, defence and healthcare. Ontario’s non-trade-dependent industries will continue to provide stability, keeping overall labour market conditions from worsening (Figure 1).

Sales are projected to start rising across Ontario’s major CMAs in 2026 and continue trending up into 2028. Several factors will support more home sales including:

• Improving affordability as income growth further outpaces home prices. Recent declines in mortgage rates and changes to mortgage insurance rules, specifically extended amortizations, will make it easier for more buyers to enter the market.
• Household formation is expected to remain relatively strong despite slow population growth due to pent-up demand. Higher inventory and lower prices will allow a portion of previously suppressed households to secure housing that meets their needs.
• Increased first-time homebuyer participation helps to initiate subsequent move‑up transactions, supporting sales across other buyer segments over the forecast period.

However, sales are likely to stay below the 10-year average due to overall limited purchasing power, historically low consumer confidence and weak population growth, which will slow demand. Sales forecasts vary by region:

• The Greater Toronto Area is projected to lead in growth due to strong demand and a diversified economy.
• Southwestern Ontario and outer Greater Golden Horseshoe are likely to see slower growth due to weaker job prospects and reduced intra-provincial migration.
• Ottawa is expected to maintain steady sales, supported by its strong tech and defence sectors.

Elevated inventory to prevent price growth

Ontario’s average resale price is projected to decline slightly in 2026, mainly due to weakness in the Greater Toronto Area. Because of plentiful resale supply, combined with continued weak sales activity, sellers will face pressure to reduce prices for now.

Market intelligence indicates that listings are set to remain high as more sellers, especially investors, return to the market following earlier unsuccessful attempts to sell. Additional upward pressure on listings might come from strong new‑home completions, and a large number of mortgage renewals in 2026, which could result in more financially struggling borrowers selling their homes.

Increasing housing demand is expected to result in price growth in both 2027 and 2028, led by lower inventory and stronger demand in the GTA. Fewer new completions will also reduce the flow of new supply to the market, helping to limit future increases in listings.

Market dynamics will differ by housing type:

• Family-sized homes should see more stability, with stronger demand clearing inventory faster.
• Condominium apartments, especially in the GTA, Hamilton and Kitchener – Cambridge – Waterloo, will face weaker absorption.

New home starts expected to decline for the fifth year in a row

Housing starts in Ontario will decline in 2026, following large drops in previous years. This decline will be concentrated in the GTA, Ottawa and Kitchener – Cambridge – Waterloo regions. Trends vary by dwelling type:

• Ground-oriented homes: Single, semi‑detached and row home starts are expected to fall again. This is because of higher resale market inventory that offers more affordable options, reducing demand for new units. However, if the resale market tightens after 2026, ground-oriented starts could gradually increase.
• Apartments: Condominium apartments will see the largest decline due to very low pre-construction sales, which point to further declines. Rental apartment starts are expected to stabilize at strong levels in 2026 and beyond, supported by institutional investors and government programs. However, rental starts will not fully offset the past declines in condominium starts.

Ontario continues to face a structural shortage of housing, but access to capital and competition from a well-supplied resale market are hindering starts. Additionally, demand for new homes is lower because new units are expensive, and Ontario’s builders struggle to keep prices down due to increased input costs, including some of the highest municipal development charges in the country.

Rental starts will remain a key driver

2025 marked a significant milestone in Ontario as rental starts outpaced other tenures (Figure 2). In 2026, lower borrowing costs, targeted tax measures and ongoing federal initiatives will underpin rental starts. These factors, along with provincial policy support and improvements in local approval processes, provide further support for rental starts.

Market intelligence suggests many developers with financing and municipal approval will continue to start projects because they expect to deliver supply under better market conditions by the end of the decade. This is driven primarily by a projected decline in competition from new units added to the secondary rental market. However, the outlook for further rental growth becomes less certain as we move into 2027 due to:

• Stricter underwriting, which limits the number of planned condominium sites that can convert to rental.
• Increasing vacancies and slowing rent growth, which will reduce viability, especially in Southwestern Ontario and outer Greater Golden Horseshoe regions.

Rental market to see higher vacancies

Rental markets in 2026 are expected to remain broadly balanced, with vacancy rates ranging somewhere between 3 to 5 percent across Ontario. A healthy supply of new units will meet sluggish demand, as less international migration continues to weigh on demand this year. Vacancy rates are expected to be higher in Southwestern Ontario and parts of the outer Greater Golden Horseshoe that relied more heavily on non-permanent residents for population growth.

Growth in the average rent for 2-bedroom units will slow as landlords compete to attract new tenants. Rent growth for existing tenants will also be limited to maintain occupancy levels.

This forecast is subject to risks

Ontario’s housing market forecast depends on key factors like interest rates, employment, incomes and migration. If these forces diverge from expectations, our housing outcomes will be impacted.

Ontario also faces unique risks from U.S. trade policy, which may impact the economy, especially major export industries like metals and autos. Higher-than-expected tariffs could negatively affect communities reliant on goods-producing industries.

Stronger-than-expected pent-up homeownership demand, combined with a sharper housing supply shortage, could accelerate market activity as past population and income growth drives more first-time buyers into the market.

Rental construction has benefitted from lower borrowing costs, federal financing incentives and municipal programs. If these conditions change negatively, our outlook for starts may be negatively impacted. There is also a possibility for increased supportive measures that lead to higher-than-expected rental starts.

In 2026, the number of sales are expected to increase as previously sidelined buyers will be encouraged by lower prices and less burdensome mortgage rates that have increased borrowing capacity (Figure 3). Return-to-office mandates are also expected to reduce out-migration, providing some support to demand. However, sales will remain below their 10-year historical average due to elevated unemployment, subdued investor confidence and ongoing affordability challenges for many households. Beyond 2026, an improving labour market will enable sales to grow further.

In 2026, the average price is projected to continue moving lower due to a large resale inventory, persistent affordability challenges and weak sales. By dwelling type, the condominium market is expected to underperform as a high number of completions place downward pressure on prices. Moving into 2027, the average price is likely to resume growth as new completions taper off and sales growth starts to outpace new listings.

Housing starts in the GTA are expected to decline this year due to ongoing weakness in the condominium apartment segment. This outlook is supported by exceptionally low pre-construction sales over the past 2 years, and with many homebuyers turning to the resale market instead. Emerging evidence points to growth past 2027 as some developers aim to start projects at lower sales thresholds.

Ground‑oriented housing starts are set to fall further in 2026, as stretched affordability and suppressed move-up buyer activity reduce demand. Prospective homebuyers are likely to focus on the resale market where supply is abundant. Builders will prioritize selling the growing number of newly completed homes that haven’t sold yet.

Despite this year’s forecast for an overall decline in housing starts, we expect robust rental starts. Government financing programs and municipal incentives will continue to support this tenure. Market intelligence indicates optimism regarding this market’s long-term outlook. Developers are encouraged by less competition from slowing condominium completions that are currently the main source of new rental supply. Additionally, more developers are showing interest in converting existing condominium site applications to rental projects.

The purpose-built rental apartment vacancy rate is expected to rise in 2026 due to rental supply growth that coincides with weaker population growth. Some high-income GTA renters will also be enticed by improving purchase affordability and transition to homeownership. In 2027 and 2028, the vacancy rate will stabilize as absorption outpaces moderating supply from much fewer newly completed rented condominiums.

As rental options increase, the average rent for a 2‑bedroom unit is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2026. Most of the increase will come from units that turn over to new tenants and from new, higher priced units entering the market. A slightly stronger pace of rent growth is anticipated after 2026, when conditions begin to stabilize.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Sales in Hamilton are expected to increase in 2026. As economic uncertainty fades and affordability improves, previously sidelined buyers will gradually return. The Hamilton CMA is less likely to be negatively affected by return-to-office mandates due to its transit links to Toronto. In‑migration from Toronto will provide comparatively stronger demand. However, affordability will remain historically poor, capping demand. Sales are unlikely to return to historical averages until 2028.

The average price is projected to remain stable in 2026, as elevated for‑sale inventory will prevent price growth. Modest price increases are expected to return later in the forecast period as inventory crests and demand gradually strengthens. Within the CMA, areas such as Burlington are expected to outperform, as buyers place higher values on shorter commutes. In contrast, central Hamilton may underperform as weak investor demand could lead to slow absorption of inventories, particularly condominium apartments.

We expect housing starts in Hamilton CMA to decline in 2026. Nevertheless, rental apartment projects in all its municipalities (Hamilton, Burlington and Grimsby) will partly offset the decline in condominium construction.

Ground‑oriented housing starts are expected to increase from historic lows in 2027 and 2028 as macroeconomic conditions improve and unsold inventory normalizes.

Stacked townhomes are expected to make up a growing share of apartment activity, as developers shift from high-rise projects to supplying more “missing middle” housing.

Government policies are set to support the outlook for rental apartment starts. Initiatives aimed at speeding up construction, along with ongoing incentives to approve more projects, will help sustain starts throughout the forecast period.

The purpose-built rental market vacancy rate is likely to keep climbing in 2026. Elevated purpose-built rental and condominium apartment starts in recent years will lead to higher rental supply while slower population growth limits absorption. The vacancy rate will stabilize later in the forecast period as completions decline and household formation strengthens.

Rent growth will slow, driven mainly by units turning over to new tenants and newly completed higher‑priced rentals.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Improvements in home purchase affordability are expected to lift the number of home sales. However, sales are only estimated to near historical averages by 2028, as weak population growth and lingering economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand.

The Kitchener – Cambridge – Waterloo economy will benefit from expanding health care and technology sectors. However, near-term challenges remain due to declining demand in its large education and automotive sectors. The CMA is particularly vulnerable to changes in trade policy, which could limit future job growth.

The average price is expected to be flat this year, before resuming growth in 2027 and 2028, supported by improving demand fundamentals. Elevated listings in 2026 will gradually be absorbed as sales strengthen, shifting the market toward balance. By 2027, tighter supply could reintroduce bidding in areas favoured by young families rather than those of investors.

Total housing starts in the Kitchener – Cambridge – Waterloo CMA are expected to decline in 2026 from the elevated level reached in 2025. This decline is mostly due to weak condominium apartment investor demand. However, the slowdown in condominium starts will be partly offset by another year of strong purpose-built rental apartment starts in both Kitchener and Waterloo. It should also be noted that infrastructure related capacity constraints identified by the Region of Waterloo have led to a temporary pause in new development approvals, posing a downside risk to the forecast for housing starts.

Demand for new ground-oriented homes is likely to remain muted early in the forecast period, as buyers look to the resale market. Builders are expected to shift toward smaller units, such as townhomes, to meet affordability-driven demand. This shift will likely increase starts in areas such as Cambridge and South Kitchener.

The purpose-built apartment vacancy rate is expected to increase in 2026, as slowing population growth and reduced international student inflows reduce demand while new supply continues to expand.

The average rent for a 2‑bedroom unit is expected to rise modestly. Tenant turnover will support rent growth, but increased competition among landlords will temper price pressures.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Sales in London are expected to trend higher as economic conditions stabilize. However, trade-related uncertainty will temper the pace of recovery. By 2027 and 2028, improved economic conditions, pent‑up demand and growth in key industries, such as electric vehicle and defence-vehicle manufacturing, should lift sales.

The average price is expected to remain relatively flat in 2026, reflecting a buyers’ market with higher listings. As demand strengthens in the latter forecast years, price growth is expected to resume, but moderately.

In 2026, total housing starts in London CMA are expected to be stable. Ground‑oriented construction is projected to show little movement from recent lows, as weak new home sales and healthy resale inventories constrain activity. However, ground‑oriented starts are expected to gradually rise after 2026. This is due to row homes, which offer an affordable option for young families, while also appealing to downsizers looking to reduce maintenance and costs. Many of these projects will be in South London.

In 2026, apartments will also hold near 2025 levels. Despite lower international migration targets and trade‑related challenges reducing demand expectations, many approved rental apartment projects will likely start construction.

Beyond 2026, additional momentum for apartment construction is expected due to favourable financing and policy supports from all levels of government. Municipal efforts to promote infill and mid-rise development will also contribute. While rental construction will remain dominant, activity is likely to subside as builders focus on completing the high number of units currently under construction.

The purpose-built rental market vacancy rate is expected to rise in 2026 due to strong growth in rental supply. At the same time, demand will soften as lower population growth results from reduced immigration and international student targets.

Rent growth will remain positive but subdued. Higher rental supply and increased tenant choice will limit upward pressure on rents. Landlords are expected to balance rent adjustments with the need to maintain occupancy in a more competitive environment.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

In the Ontario portion of the Ottawa – Gatineau census metropolitan area (CMA) (hereafter referred to as the “Ottawa area”), housing starts surpassed the forecasts presented in our summer 2025 update. The improvement of financing conditions and the support offered by various levels of government provided some momentum to rental housing construction in 2025.

For 2026, we predict a decrease in the number of housing starts. The main reasons will be the slowdown in population growth and the high number of units already under construction. According to our market intelligence, permits and approvals are already down relative to this time last year, which confirms the general direction of our forecasts for the area.

The slowdown in activity will have the biggest impact on apartments. The increase in the vacancy rates of newer, relatively expensive units is reducing developers’ interest in building new rental projects. Government incentives and the drop in interest rates will mitigate these effects, however. Apartments will continue to account for the largest share of starts, though that share will be lower than in 2025. Condominium construction will remain unappealing, given the lack of buyers and investors in the market.

Starts for ground-oriented units will remain stable. High inventories of completed and unsold row homes will dampen starts of this unit type in 2026. In fact, as stated in our report on “missing-middle” housing in Canada, Ottawa stands out from most other markets for the large share of its starts accounted for by row homes. This type of unit represents 20% of the area’s housing stock.

In 2027 and 2028, starts in the Ottawa area will remain in line with levels observed in 2026. Local policies will continue to support housing supply. A federal-municipal partnership is expected to encourage the creation of several thousand units over the coming years. The City also wants to increase density, diversify housing options and simplify approval processes.

We foresee moderate activity on the resale market over the forecast horizon. Sales should stabilize in 2026, as indicated in our summer 2025 update. The Ottawa-area job market weakened last year, which limited demand. The area recorded the highest unemployment rate increase among Canada’s largest CMAs in 2025. Over the medium term, expected job losses in the public service could further slow demand and limit price growth. With stable demand and a greater supply of units for sale, prices won’t increase much in 2026.

In 2026, the rental market should continue to ease more quickly than expected. Population growth will continue to slow. The decrease in the number of international students and foreign workers–who are largely renters–will contribute to this market easing. Additionally, a record number of rental units are under construction, and many of them will enter the market this year. Their completion will reduce demand pressure on the market and strengthen our predictions of an increase in vacancy rates over the short and medium terms.

In this context, rent growth will remain modest. The Ontario residential rent increase guideline for 2026 is 2.1%. This is the lowest level in 4 years and will contribute to slowing rent growth.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

In 2026, sales are projected to increase but remain below its 10-year average. This outlook is primarily driven by improving affordability in St. Catharines – Niagara. However, sales growth is expected to be constrained by fewer international migrants, more cautious buyers, and reduced in-migration from the GTA and Hamilton due to return-to-office mandates.

We anticipate the average price will be relatively stable in 2026, as increasing new listings will maintain buyers’ market conditions. Modest price growth is expected in 2027 and 2028 as economic conditions gradually normalize and demand strengthens, particularly from first-time buyers seeking more affordable single-family homes.

Housing starts in the St. Catharines – Niagara CMA are expected to decline in 2026. Despite this, relatively robust rental apartment starts activity should continue. This outlook is supported by recent municipal approvals and an increasingly supportive policy environment. Multiple rental apartment projects are expected to start in the municipality of Niagara Falls.

Ground‑oriented starts are projected to be stable in 2026, remaining near historic lows. With new homes sales anticipated to stay low and prices trending down, builders have little incentive to start additional projects. We expect a gradual recovery to begin in 2027 and 2028 as inventories become scarcer, particularly in areas such as South Niagara Falls, Fort Erie and Welland.

The purpose-built rental market vacancy rate is expected to stay high before stabilizing later in the forecast period. This is mainly driven by lower non-permanent resident migration. Steady completions will add supply to a purpose-built rental stock that had seen little growth in years.

The average rent for a 2-bedroom unit is expected to see slight growth. Softer demand will temper rent increases, but new, higher‑priced units entering the market will provide some upward pressure.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Sales are projected to grow slightly in 2026. Windsor’s housing market is closely tied to the performance of its manufacturing sector. While manufacturing employment has remained stable, uncertainty around trade relations and job prospects have lowered consumer confidence. These challenges are expected to keep demand low for now, with a stronger recovery likely once economic conditions stabilize later in the forecast period.

Ample resale inventory will continue to give purchasers greater negotiating power, limiting any growth in the average resale price. We expect to see tighter market conditions in areas that appeal to young families or downsizers seeking lower-priced single-family homes.

Total housing starts in the Windsor CMA are expected to decline further in 2026, reflecting ongoing weakness in both ground‑oriented and condominium apartment construction. Ample resale inventory and shifting migration patterns continue to dampen homeownership demand.

Rental apartment starts, however, are expected to hold up better due to significant government support for projects, specifically in the City of Windsor.

As broader economic conditions stabilize in 2027 and 2028, greater homeownership demand will support a recovery in ground-oriented housing starts. This recovery will lead to more starts in outer areas of the CMA, such as Tecumseh and Amherstburg.

The purpose-built rental apartment vacancy rate is expected to rise throughout the forecast period. Declines in the number of work‑permit holders and study‑permit holders, groups that have historically driven much of Windsor’s rental demand, are contributing to softer conditions.

The average rent for a 2‑bedroom unit will continue to grow at a modest pace. Asking rents may decrease as vacancies rise, but rent adjustments upon tenant turnover will keep pushing up the overall average rent paid.

Source: CREA, CMHC

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Strong markets despite slow economic growth

In Quebec, several factors have limited investments by businesses in the goods-producing sector. These factors include the slowdown of the U.S. economy and uncertainty around trade, particularly the risk of new U.S. tariffs. This risk weighed heavily on our forecasts for the Quebec markets in 2025.

Most Canadian exports to the US have avoided tariffs, thanks to the exemptions in the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). While these exemptions have limited the effects of tariffs, uncertainty remains.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will remain positive but slow in 2026. Growth will be sustained largely by the service sector and by federal and provincial government spending.

In this slow growth environment, the job market will show signs of weakness but remain resilient, with the public sector, the service sector and certain infrastructure projects continuing to provide employment. Despite a slight increase in unemployment expected in 2026, household income should continue to grow and to sustain demand, even though this demand will be moderate.

The end of the mortgage interest rate cutting cycle will limit growth in homeownership demand. No new reductions in borrowing costs are expected in 2026. As a result, the stimulative effect of lower rates on the market will be limited. Economic uncertainty could also slow demand, especially among younger households.

Growth in housing demand will slow, mostly because of lower population growth

Lower population growth will be the main factor moderating the increase in housing demand, while the slowdown in economic growth will also contribute, though to a lesser extent.

The slowdown in population growth that started at the end of 2024 (Figure 1) will continue because of 2 main factors:

• The federal government’s cap on international student admissions
• Quebec’s reduced immigration targets

Montréal may even see a population decrease. Among Quebec’s metropolitan areas, Montréal has been the most affected by the net loss of non-permanent residents. As a result, its housing market — especially the rental market — is likely to soften. Rental housing dominates residential construction and is the main housing option that attracts more newcomers than any other.

In the Québec metropolitan area, where the economy depends heavily on the service sector, the housing market should remain tight. The service sector remains resilient, supported by growth in healthcare services and financial and professional services. In this context, demand on the resale market will be sustained.

In Gatineau, slower population growth and increased consumer caution will likely reduce pressure on the housing market over the coming years, as indicated by our previous forecasts.

Resale markets will remain dynamic in 2026

In the resale market, the stimulative effects of interest rate cuts will be less pronounced than in 2025. A strong Quebec economy will, however, continue to support sales in 2026. But over the medium term, sales growth will slow because of lower population growth.

Market conditions will ease as listings increase faster than sales, leading to more limited price growth. Despite this, the Québec area will stand out with higher price growth than regions, due to the low number of units available on the market.

Prices should stabilize starting in 2027, once the full effect of slower population growth is felt on the market. The exception will be the Québec area, where prices will likely continue to increase. Demand in the area is strong and will likely remain so over the medium term, supported by a job market that’s posting one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country.

Starts will stabilize at high levels

In Quebec, the impact of tariffs is limited, and the economy is more resilient than in other provinces. In Montréal and Québec, starts even surpassed expectations in 2025, and construction will remain strong in 2026.

The recovery that began in 2024 will continue in Gatineau in 2026. Starts will stabilize at high levels after the decline that followed the pandemic. In the Montréal area, starts will also increase slightly in 2026 before gradually slowing down over the medium term.

In the Québec area, starts are expected to follow a slight downward trend in 2026. This slowdown will largely be a result of the moratorium on starts imposed in Lévis in 2025.

Over the forecast horizon, starts are expected to stabilize at high levels, supported by:

• Interest rates that will be lower than the peak they reached a few quarters ago
• Government measures to support increased housing supply

Additionally, rental housing projects are generally planned several years in advance. As a result, the volume of starts doesn’t immediately reflect changes in market conditions.

This level of activity is a contrast to the condominium market, which remains weak. Very few condominiums will be built in 2026.

Quebec rental markets will soften over the forecast horizon

The last few years have been marked by record levels of rental housing starts in Quebec’s main markets. Government programs and incentives have stimulated construction, and strong demand has created favourable conditions. As a result, a higher volume of new units is entering the market, pushing vacancy rates up.

The easing of the rental markets that started 2 years ago will continue in 2026. Vacancy rates will continue to increase over the forecast horizon. We see them reaching between 2.5% and 4.5% in the province’s main markets this year.

The number of apartments under construction in Quebec’s main markets is very high (Figure 2). This means many new units will continue to enter the market over the short and medium terms.

In Quebec, rent growth will be less significant in 2026 than in 2025. Last year’s increases were largely the result of the Tribunal administratif du logement’s (TAL) recommendations. The TAL has since revised its calculation system, and the recommended rent increase will probably be lower starting in 2026. Additionally, with the increasing supply of new units — which tend to push average prices up — rental property developers and owners will try to keep prices competitive. We therefore expect rent increases to be more moderate over the short and medium terms.

Risks to the forecast

Downside risks:

• Greater-than-expected slowdown in population growth
• Continued weakening of the job market due to lower-than-expected economic growth

Upside risks:

• Stronger-than-expected pent-up demand: because of economic uncertainty, more households delayed plans to buy a home in 2025, but they could come back to the market over the medium term.
• Population growth that remains high if new immigration targets aren’t reached, or if they’re reviewed and increased.

In 2025, housing starts were weaker than expected, especially in the multi-unit segment. Many rental projects were under construction in 2025, but some new projects appear to have been deferred to 2026 because of lower demand.

We expect starts to recover in 2026, since our market intelligence indicates that many projects are being planned. This recovery will increase the supply of rental housing, which accounts for the majority of starts. This trend should continue over the next 2 years.

Construction of condominiums and ground-oriented housing will remain weak. Even though resale market inventory is low, new project starts will be slowed by high construction costs and unfavourable economic conditions.

The resale market will remain stable in 2026, and the number of sales will be comparable to that recorded in 2025. This stability should continue over the medium term. The Gatineau job market remains resilient, despite an uptick in the unemployment rate. The local economy depends heavily on the service sector, and more particularly on public administration, and so U.S.-imposed tariffs will likely have little impact.

Demand will remain strong, while supply will stay limited, pushing prices up. However, job cuts announced within the federal government are a risk. The impact of these cuts on housing demand will depend on how big they end up being.

After the increases in vacancy rates seen over the past 2 years, the rental market will continue to ease in 2026. This easing will be caused by both the higher supply of new units and the slowdown in housing demand. The slowdown in demand is largely due to reduced targets for permanent and temporary immigration.

Despite the easing rental market, rent growth persisted in 2025, partly due to the Tribunal administratif du logement’s (TAL) rent increase recommendations. In 2026, growth in the average rent should slow as new units enter the market and demand continues to decline.

Sources: CMHC, Centris®.

QPAREB via Centris®. Centris® contains all real estate broker listings in Quebec.

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

In 2025, starts in the metropolitan area surpassed expectations and posted record growth. Starts are expected to remain high in 2026 before decreasing in 2027 and 2028. For now, the marked slowdown in population growth doesn’t appear to have dampened rental housing construction activity, and rental apartment starts hit a record high.

Despite the rise in the vacancy rate and the slowdown in the absorption of new units, some projects will break ground this year. Our market intelligence indicates that a significant number of rental housing projects planned over the last several years will be started in 2026.

Rental housing will continue to drive residential construction, as this segment accounts for 80% of new housing units. Financing conditions have improved somewhat, and several government programs are supporting the creation of new housing. Additionally, new development plans should help increase housing density in strategic areas.

This high level of activity contrasts with the weakness of the condominium segment, where starts have been dampened by high costs and limited presales. The construction of detached homes will also remain moderate.

Over the medium term, 3 factors are expected to gradually slow the pace of starts:

• Lower demand linked to demographic conditions
• High construction costs, which limits profitability and affordability
• The high number of units already under construction, which will increase housing supply over the medium term

On the resale market, as predicted in our previous forecasts, sales will continue to increase in 2026, but at a slower pace. The drop in mortgage rates in 2024 and 2025 boosted demand, but this effect is fading as rates stabilize. Economic uncertainty and slower population growth will also contribute to lower sales. Younger households are especially hard-hit by these last 2 factors, and moving to homeownership remains difficult for them. They’re also more vulnerable to weakness in the job market than other households.

Despite these challenges, the inventory of homes for sale remains low. This will maintain some competition between buyers. Existing homes continue to be more affordable than new ones, which will make them more appealing. However, with demand weakening, price growth will be much more modest than in recent years.

The rental market is also easing. The marked decrease in the number of non-permanent residents has reduced growth in demand for rental housing. Market easing was greater than expected in 2025, so much so that vacancy rate expectations were reviewed and increased. As a result, we now expect the vacancy rate to rise for a third consecutive year, and more sharply in 2026 than previously predicted.

The increase will be due to:

• The large number of units recently completed or still under construction
• The expected drop in the number of permanent and temporary immigrants
• The weakness in the job market.

These factors will limit the formation of new renter households. As a result, we predict that the supply of rental units will continue to grow faster than demand.

Over the forecast horizon, the higher number of available units will slow the growth in the average rent. However, demand for the most affordable units will remain strong, keeping their vacancy rate low.

Sources: CMHC, Centris®.

QPAREB via Centris®. Centris® contains all real estate broker listings in Quebec.

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

In 2025, housing starts increased with support from lower interest rates and several government programs. However, starts are expected to decrease in 2026, then stabilize over the medium term. The decrease will stem mainly from the moratorium imposed by the City of Lévis on the issuing of new construction permits in certain areas. This measure will slow construction on the South Shore, which usually accounts for nearly a quarter of starts in the region. Even though several multi-unit projects are planned for the North Shore, they won’t completely offset this decline.

The construction of ground-oriented units should stay stable at low levels, as lots will be scarce and costs will remain high.

Increases in resale market activity will slow down in 2026, with sales remaining steady at 2025 levels. Prices will, however, continue to increase in the metropolitan area, as demand will remain strong and supply limited. Québec’s economy is largely service-based, since public administration accounts for a high share of the region’s jobs. Trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. have therefore had little impact on the regional economy, which remains resilient. Québec’s job market is among the strongest in the country.

In 2025, the vacancy rate increased more quickly than expected in the Québec area and, in 2026, rental market conditions will continue to ease.

Two factors explain this trend:

• The rapid decrease in the number of temporary immigrants, which started in 2025 and that will continue because of new immigration policies
• An increase in the supply of new rental units

Despite these conditions, rents should continue to increase over the short term, though at a slower pace than in the past. This moderation will be partly driven by the increase in the number of available units.

Sources: CMHC, Centris®.

QPAREB via Centris®. Centris® contains all real estate broker listings in Quebec.

The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of January 15, 2026.

Following strong growth in 2025, housing starts in Halifax are expected to stabilize in 2026. The market is cooling after years of record apartment construction. Despite this moderation, starts will remain high compared to historical levels. Lower interest rates and government programs, such as MLI Select, will keep creating financial incentives for new construction.

Strong employment, slower population growth and new tax policies shape the outlook. Prices and sales are expected to rise slightly in 2026. Over the medium term, sales will stabilize as population growth slows and most new homes remain unaffordable for first-time buyers. Price growth will also moderate during this period.

Conditions differ in rentals. The market is expected to ease in 2026, with vacancy rates rising slightly — more than previously expected. This reflects record completions, many units under construction and weaker demand due to fewer non-resident immigrants. Affordability continued to improve in 2025 after a significant post-pandemic decline, but vacancy rates will stay below the long-term average, keeping the market tight.

Even with increased supply, average rents are expected to increase modestly, while tenant turnover remains low. Affordability concerns and rent caps will discourage tenant movement. Rent caps may also reduce the overall rental stock, as some units are removed from the market and converted to other uses, mostly condos. Over the medium term, these factors will keep the rental market tight.

Source: CMHC, MLS®