Evidence of Overvaluation Remains Moderate

CMHC’s first-quarter 2020 Housing Market Assessment maintains a moderate degree of overall vulnerability at the national level. However, overall vulnerability has been reduced from moderate to low for Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg.

This latest release includes a new section providing more details on the Housing Market Assessment analytical framework used to assess overvaluation.

Highlights from the first quarter 2020 release

• Price acceleration and overvaluation imbalances are still signaled for Victoria. In Vancouver, the evidence of overvaluation remains moderate.
• Evidence of overheating and price acceleration is still flagged in Toronto and Hamilton. Overall, the degree of vulnerability remains moderate in these two regions.
• The overall degree of vulnerability is downgraded from moderate to low in several markets of the Prairies: Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg.
• Evidence of overbuilding in Saskatoon eased from moderate to low. Evidence of overbuilding is still detected in Edmonton and Calgary, but no longer sustain a moderate rating in the overall assessment.
• Evidence of overvaluation in Winnipeg eased from moderate to low.
• Overall vulnerability remains moderate in Regina where evidence of overbuilding remains high.
• A low degree of overall vulnerability remains for Ottawa, Montréal, Québec, Moncton, Halifax and St. John's. However, evidence of overheating persists in the resale markets of Montréal and Moncton.

What is CMHC’s Housing Market Assessment?

The Housing Market Assessments (HMAs), published quarterly, analyze Canada’s housing markets and give a comprehensive view of these markets’ vulnerabilities. The HMAs consider 4 main factors: overheating, price acceleration, overvaluation and overbuilding. The information and analysis provided can help Canadians make informed decisions and contribute to an orderly adjustment of housing market imbalances.

We publish the Housing Market Assessment report that contains results and analysis for Canada and for 15 census metropolitan areas (CMAs).