Gold Roof Award for missing middle housing research tools

The Urban Growth and Change Research Group is developing open-source tools and research on missing middle housing in Waterloo Region. These tools provide practical insights for policy, housing providers and community planning. The research focuses on completed and near completed work that addresses housing gaps and helps improve affordability and supports mid-density development.

Recognition through the Gold Roof Award for Housing Research Excellence highlights the broader impact of this work on academia and the housing sector.

Project scope and expected outcomes

Addressing housing gaps in the Waterloo Region

The Urban Growth and Change Research Group has shown how, why and where gaps in missing middle housing emerged in the Waterloo Region over the past 15 years. Their work highlights the need for new approaches to modeling housing market actors and outcomes.

The research provides insight into Canadians’ diverse housing needs and informs sustainable housing solutions. It addresses the social, environmental and economic sustainability of housing for those most in need.

Creating open-source tools for financial and market analysis

The group develops open-source costing and market simulation tools to assess cost feasibility, real-estate market impacts and policy levers for new missing middle housing typologies. These tools will allow users to:

• model costs and financial feasibility of new builds
• simulate market uptake, affordability and supply impacts
• understand how transit, zoning and household demographics influence housing markets

Data-driven insights on transit and market impacts

The data-driven research revealed where, how and why the new ION light rail transit has caused land-value uplift. It also shows:

• how household demographics influence home attribute values and impact housing market sorting
• where markets have failed to provide suitable transit-oriented housing and provide missing middle housing

The research highlights specific market impacts, showing how land values, household demographics and housing supply respond to the new ION light rail transit:

• land-value changes near the new ION light rail
• household demographics shaping home attribute values
• housing market sorting and allocation
• market failures in transit-oriented and missing middle housing

Understanding systems and development patterns

Systems-based research demonstrates the lock-in of “tall and sprawl” transit-oriented development and the lock-out of missing middle housing. The Urban Growth and Change Research Group translated research to practice through training new industry specialists, peer-reviewed articles, industry partner communication and media amplification.

Collaborative development of housing typologies

The project formed a multi-stakeholder Missing Middle Working Group to co-develop costed pre-approvable housing typologies. These typologies, along with the new Federal catalog, will be made publicly available.

Practical tools and flexible solutions for housing providers

The tools offer adaptable financial profiles for community and Indigenous housing providers. They will translate research into actionable solutions guiding policy, planning and development decisions. By integrating typologies into land-and-housing-market models, the group will evaluate:

• policy outcomes
• supply impacts
• affordability trends

These tools will support sustainable affordable housing in Canada and help communities make informed housing and policy decisions.

Proven results and recognition

The project has already informed planning and development for housing in the Region of Waterloo and beyond. It received the 2025 Gold Roof Award for Housing Research Excellence, a $12,500 grant highlighting impactful housing research in Canada that links to affordable housing.

The award emphasizes the project’s leadership, credibility and measurable impact on housing policy and development practices. Peer-reviewed publications, media coverage and government engagement show how these tools influence decisions and expand access to sustainable affordable housing nationwide.