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Canadian Housing Starts Trend Increased in April

Ottawa, May 8, 2019

The trend in housing starts was 206,103 units in April 2019, compared to 202,420 units in March 2019, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"The national trend in housing starts increased in April, as higher-trending multi-unit starts offset a continued decline in the trend for single starts, in urban areas," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "The increase in the trend of multi-unit starts reflects a strong recovery in multi-unit SAAR activity in March and April from consecutive declines at the end of 2018 and the first months of 2019."

Monthly Highlights

Vancouver

Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) housing starts continued to trend higher in April 2019, despite a year-to-date 2% decline compared to last year, partly due to the slowdown in the single-detached sector. The year-to-date multi-family starts increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. Fifty-three per cent of these projects are located in the cities of Vancouver and Burnaby. As the reduced sales activities continued to allow listings to accumulate, developers have started to focus more on existing projects rather than new construction.

Kelowna

Housing starts in the Kelowna CMA declined in April, relative to the same month last year, in both the single-detached and multi-unit segments of the market. Additionally, in the first 4 months of 2019, housing starts came in 32% lower relative to the same period in 2018. This was largely due to the persistence of large multi-unit projects getting underway early in 2018 relative to what has been seen so far in 2019. Overall, this moderation in new construction activity is in line with population growth patterns and a growing inventory of unsold units in the existing and new home markets.

Calgary

Calgary CMA housing starts trended slightly higher in April, as row-home starts saw a year-over-year increase of 42% in the first four months in 2019. Although construction activity in the freehold multi and single home sectors continued to slow down as the economy recovers, the year-to-date housing starts in the condo sector has increased by 19% compared to the same period last year, indicating a relatively positive outlook from both buyers and developers in the more affordable housing sector.

Regina

The trend in total housing starts declined for a sixth straight month after local homebuilders significantly scaled back production of single-detached and multi-family units. Homebuilding activity in Regina has continued to slow in 2019 due to higher construction costs and weaker economic conditions. As a result, year-to-date housing starts in the Regina CMA numbered 172 units in April, compared to 546 in the same period of 2018.

Winnipeg

In the Winnipeg CMA, total starts trended higher in April 2019 compared to the previous month, driven by apartment starts which increased by 12%. There were increases across all types of housing units, except row which decreased by 27%. The increase in the demand for housing units resulted in a decrease in the inventory of completed and unsold units.

Toronto

Total housing starts trended slightly lower during April in the Toronto CMA owing mainly to lower trending condominium apartment and single-detached home starts. Strong pre-construction condominium apartment sales over the past two years are likely to be reflected in future housing starts. Declining sales of pre-construction units of single-detached homes during the past year will likely mean fewer starts over the coming months.

Oshawa

Total housing starts trended lower as the Oshawa CMA saw the least starts for the month of April in almost four decades. Strong demand for relatively affordable multi-unit housing led to record high apartment starts in 2018. In turn, this resulted in a record-high level of under construction inventory, which has preoccupied builders.

Hamilton

Overall housing starts in Hamilton reversed course and trended up, due to the highest townhome starts since May 2014. The strong demand for new townhomes was fueled by its price point, which fell within the price range that attracted the most buyers in the resale market over the past 12 months. The high level of competition for those resale homes caused a number of buyers to purchase a new townhome instead.

Québec

Housing starts in the Québec CMA have been trending lower since the beginning of the year. From January to April 2019, starts were down by more than 30% from the same period last year. This was due mainly to fewer rental housing units started in the first four months of this year. Still, the number of rental housing units now under construction in the area remains at a record level.

Saguenay

The downward trend in housing starts in the Saguenay CMA that began several months ago continued in April 2019. The decrease in activity was attributable to fewer homeowner (freehold and condominium) housing starts. Overall, residential construction in the area has been limited by the slowdown in employment and low population growth.

New Brunswick

New Brunswick’s total housing starts increased in April compared to the same month last year, mainly due to an increase in multi-unit construction. In the first four months of 2019, multi-unit construction increased 158% compared to 2018. Increased apartment construction activity is supported by historic low vacancy rates and strong population growth in urban centers. On the other hand, single-detached construction continues to trend down. In fact, the number of single-detached starts in the first four months of the year were the lowest on record.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada’s housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 235,460 units in April, up 22.6% from 191,981 units in March. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 24.0% in April to 220,387 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 29.6% to 175,732 units in April while single-detached urban starts increased by 6.0% to 44,655 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15,073 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC’s Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For more information, follow us on Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram.

Information on this Release:

Angelina Ritacco
Media Relations, CMHC
416-218-3320
aritacco@cmhc-schl.gc.ca

Table 1: Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
Single-Detached  All Others Total
April 2018 April 2019  % April 2018 April 2019  % April 2018 April 2019  %
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L. 25 12 -52 4 2 -50 29 14 -52
P.E.I. 23 12 -48 87 8 -91 110 20 -82
N.S. 64 81 27 167 158 -5 231 239 3
N.B. 20 16 -20 27 80 196 47 96 104
Atlantic 132 121 -8 285 248 -13 417 369 -12
Qc 617 585 -5 3,615 3,563 -1 4,232 4,148 -2
Ont. 1,610 1,211 -25 3,535 5,573 58 5,145 6,784 32
Man. 186 184 -1 263 303 15 449 487 8
Sask. 80 44 -45 60 60 - 140 104 -26
Alta. 965 722 -25 1,322 1,335 1 2,287 2,057 -10
Prairies 1,231 950 -23 1,645 1,698 3 2,876 2,648 -8
B.C. 831 730 -12 2,461 3,417 39 3,292 4,147 26
Canada (10,000+) 4,421 3,597 -19 11,541 14,499 26 15,962 18,096 13
Metroplolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission 14 27 93 22 56 155 36 83 131
Barrie 15 3 -80 214 48 -78 229 51 -78
Belleville 19 28 47 4 6 50 23 34 48
Brantford 31 11 -65 4 25 ## 35 36 3
Calgary 341 254 -26 862 701 -19 1,203 955 -21
Edmonton 453 323 -29 369 546 48 822 869 6
Greater Sudbury 7 3 -57 4 0 -100 11 3 -73
Guelph 6 15 150 48 8 -83 54 23 -57
Halifax 39 42 8 150 126 -16 189 168 -11
Hamilton 66 31 -53 566 430 -24 632 461 -27
Kelowna 67 41 -39 315 28 -91 382 69 -82
Kingston 25 19 -24 32 26 -19 57 45 -21
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 50 82 64 56 1,087 ## 106 1,169 ##
Lethbridge 24 31 29 18 8 -56 42 39 -7
London 154 88 -43 213 348 63 367 436 19
Moncton 9 7 -22 6 78 ## 15 85 467
Montréal 263 242 -8 2,653 2,336 -12 2,916 2,578 -12
Oshawa 121 28 -77 0 6 ## 121 34 -72
Ottawa-Gatineau 187 270 44 403 628 56 590 898 52
Gatineau 25 43 72 35 365 ## 60 408 ##
Ottawa 162 227 40 368 263 -29 530 490 -8
Peterborough 31 17 -45 0 15 ## 31 32 3
Québec 83 64 -23 222 288 30 305 352 15
Regina 24 10 -58 36 25 -31 60 35 -42
Saguenay 17 10 -41 33 12 -64 50 22 -56
St. Catharines-Niagara 64 109 70 181 209 15 245 318 30
Saint John 3 5 67 0 0 - 3 5 67
St. John's 21 7 -67 4 1 -75 25 8 -68
Saskatoon 48 29 -40 15 22 47 63 51 -19
Sherbrooke 30 24 -20 98 100 2 128 124 -3
Thunder Bay 0 1 ## 0 0 - 0 1 ##
Toronto 520 234 -55 1,638 2,920 78 2,158 3,154 46
Trois-Rivières 15 23 53 130 39 -70 145 62 -57
Vancouver 402 348 -13 1,567 2,524 61 1,969 2,872 46
Victoria 82 55 -33 189 395 109 271 450 66
Windsor 54 44 -19 14 30 114 68 74 9
Winnipeg 153 158 3 232 286 23 385 444 15
Total 3,438 2,683 -22 10,298 13,357 30 13,736 16,040 17

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

Table 2: Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
  Single-Detached All Others Total
March 2019 April 2019  % March 2019 April 2019  % March 2019 April 2019  %
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L. 367 301 -18 42 44 5 409 345 -16
P.E.I. 82 161 96 0 96 ## 82 257 213
N.S. 963 1,451 51 3,758 1,871 -50 4,721 3,322 -30
N.B. 520 500 -4 159 1,073 ## 679 1,573 132
Qc    6,169 6,207 1 50,517 43,282 -14 56,686 49,489 -13
Ont. 15,015 16,994 13 43,234 68,106 58 58,249 85,100 46
Man. 2,150 2,064 -4 2,952 3,636 23 5,102 5,700 12
Sask. 867 514 -41 612 720 18 1,479 1,234 -17
Alta. 8,666 8,307 -4 9,118 15,872 74 17,784 24,179 36
B.C. 7,333 8,156 11 25,167 41,032 63 32,500 49,188 51
Canada (10,000+) 42,132 44,655 6 135,559 175,732 30 177,691 220,387 24
Canada (All Areas) 52,682 55,965 6 139,302 179,495 29 191,981 235,460 23
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission 345 324 -6 1,500 672 -55 1,845 996 -46
Barrie 152 107 -30 96 576 ## 248 683 175
Belleville 630 338 -46 0 72 ## 630 410 -35
Brantford 359 155 -57 96 300 213 455 455 -
Calgary 2,887 2,852 -1 4,008 8,412 110 6,895 11,264 63
Edmonton 3,838 3,966 3 3,120 6,552 110 6,958 10,518 51
Greater Sudbury 84 219 161 0 0 - 84 219 161
Guelph 176 203 15 0 96 ## 176 299 70
Halifax 810 795 -2 3,588 1,512 -58 4,398 2,307 -48
Hamilton 483 433 -10 1,632 5,160 216 2,115 5,593 164
Kelowna 331 421 27 252 336 33 583 757 30
Kingston 79 263 233 396 312 -21 475 575 21
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 758 988 30 756 13,044 ## 1,514 14,032 ##
Lethbridge 309 411 33 312 96 -69 621 507 -18
London 1,150 1,057 -8 1,380 4,176 203 2,530 5,233 107
Moncton 285 238 -16 0 936 ## 285 1,174 312
Montréal 2,340 2,374 1 29,006 26,932 -7 31,346 29,306 -7
Oshawa 356 393 10 384 72 -81 740 465 -37
Ottawa-Gatineau 3,447 3,996 16 6,612 7,536 14 10,059 11,532 15
Gatineau 663 771 16 4,872 4,380 -10 5,535 5,151 -7
Ottawa 2,784 3,225 16 1,740 3,156 81 4,524 6,381 41
Peterborough 831 189 -77 480 180 -63 1,311 369 -72
Québec 557 624 12 2,172 3,456 59 2,729 4,080 50
Regina 226 156 -31 468 300 -36 694 456 -34
Saguenay 136 120 -12 24 144 ## 160 264 65
St. Catharines-Niagara 1,996 1,291 -35 1,596 2,508 57 3,592 3,799 6
Saint John 87 85 -2 0 0 - 87 85 -2
St. John's 223 171 -23 0 12 ## 223 183 -18
Saskatoon 595 442 -26 96 264 175 691 706 2
Sherbrooke 477 244 -49 3,348 1,200 -64 3,825 1,444 -62
Thunder Bay 125 109 -13 0 0 - 125 109 -13
Toronto 1,891 2,966 57 30,264 35,040 16 32,155 38,006 18
Trois-Rivières 128 196 53 276 468 70 404 664 64
Vancouver 3,695 3,913 6 17,316 30,288 75 21,011 34,201 63
Victoria 572 565 -1 1,488 4,740 219 2,060 5,305 158
Windsor 393 437 11 216 360 67 609 797 31
Winnipeg 1,659 1,700 2 2,364 3,432 45 4,023 5,132 28

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

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Date Published: May 8, 2019

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