Ontario mortgage arrears expected to rise through mid-2027: CMHC

Ottawa, October 27, 2026

Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate reached 0.32% in Q2 2026, and while still below historical peaks, is expected to continue rising through mid-2027, while British Columbia and Atlantic Canada are expected to see a more moderate rise in mortgage arrears over the same period. This according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) latest Residential Mortgage Industry Report (RMIR).

Mortgage stress is not widespread across Canada. Arrears have declined in Alberta and Saskatchewan amid stronger economic conditions and higher energy prices and are expected to remain stable through mid-2027.

Ontario is projected to record the largest and most sustained increase in mortgage arrears, concentrated in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) and Southwestern Ontario. In these regions trade tensions are affecting key manufacturing sectors, including the automotive industry, and are contributing to labour-market uncertainty alongside softer housing market conditions.

The continued rise in delinquencies on auto loans, credit cards and lines of credit may signal household stress before it appears more fully in mortgage arrears. At the same time, the largest mortgage-renewal shock has likely passed, with new mortgage lending showing a lower risk profile, and banks’ provisions for potential losses remaining low relative to their mortgage portfolios.

Note: A mortgage is considered in arrears when payments are 90 days or more past due.

Quote:

“Canada is not facing a broad mortgage crisis. Financial pressure is becoming more concentrated in specific regions of the country and is appearing first in other debts, before mortgages. The mortgage system is adjusting, but these early warning signs, particularly in parts of Ontario, need to be monitored closely.”
— Aled ab Iorwerth, Deputy Chief Economist, CMHC

For more details, download and read the full RMIR on the CMHC website.

Watch CMHC's podcast discussing the latest RMIR.

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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is a federal Crown corporation and the foundation of Canada’s housing system. For over 80 years, CMHC has supported the functioning of housing markets across the country through housing finance solutions — including mortgage loan insurance and securitization — while providing trusted, unbiased data, research and market intelligence to inform policy and decision making. Through its national presence, deep expertise in housing economics and finance, and a system-wide perspective, CMHC helps foster a more stable, well-functioning housing market that supports households, communities and the broader economy.

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For more information or to request an interview with Aled ab Iorwerth, Deputy Chief Economist, CMHC, please contact: media@cmhc-schl.gc.ca