Today, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released an update to its Supply Gaps Estimate (SGE) report from June 2022, which estimated how much additional housing supply is required to restore affordability to 2004 levels by 2030. This new estimate shows the overall national supply gap remains at approximately 3.5 million more housing units by 2030, over and above what is already projected to be built by that time. Changing economic and demographic projections have caused supply gaps to change across provinces.
Among the highlights, the projected housing gap is now lower in Ontario but higher in other provinces like Alberta, Quebec, and British Columbia, as illustrated here:
|Province||Estimate of supply gap in 2030 (millions), CMHC (2022)||Baseline scenario estimate of supply gap in 2030 (millions), 2023 update|
|Newfoundland & Labrador||0.06||0.06|
|Prince Edward Island||-||-|
Source: CMHC calculations
Note: There is no supply gap in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island under this methodology.
*Numbers may not add up because of rounding
“This latest report reinforces the need for urgent action to increase housing supply to make housing affordable for everyone in Canada and continues our work on improving the understanding of what drives housing demand and supply.”
In future reports and updates, CMHC will seek greater detail on the impact of population mobility across regions and provinces, the number of rental units needed to reach affordability, and how the lack of housing supply impacts different income quintiles. Results from this work is expected to be available early next year.
View the related podcast with report author and CMHC Deputy Chief Economist, Aled ab Iorwerth on CMHC’s YouTube channel.
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