Our latest Housing Market Insight analysis, Household Projections — National and Provincial Analysis, 2020 Report, provides projections for household formation from 2021 to 2041. It is based on population projections produced by Statistics Canada at the national and provincial levels.
Demographic projections are important for estimating future housing needs. They provide important insights into population growth trends. These trends can then be used to calculate household formation by age, geography and other factors. Determining household formation patterns can help us develop more accurate questions around future housing supply and demand.
The report highlights that we cannot draw definitive conclusions on future housing markets from these projections alone.
Key findings from the report:
- In the Prairies, the strongest household growth is projected to be among young households.
- In Atlantic Canada, there is significant growth in senior-led households with current residents aging.
- In British Columbia and Ontario, growth in both younger and older households is projected.
- In Quebec, the proportion of households in each age cohort is projected to remain relatively stable.
As projections, the household trends identified in the report are useful in determining the questions to ask during the development of housing policy. Housing trends can also help determine the adequacy of housing stock and the location of housing growth.
Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population and household projections:
- Both Statistics Canada’s population projections and CMHC’s household projections were completed before the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
- To date, the pandemic has had a significant downward impact on immigration to Canada.
- Given that the pandemic is still unfolding, it is premature to consider possible revisions to CMHC’s household projections report.
Further analysis is needed to address complimentary questions, including:
- While densification is occurring in major cities, will we see an overall increase in the number of households living in denser housing?
- Will views around tenure change as the population grows?
CMHC will address these areas in more detail in a future Housing Market Insight publication. To be notified when new reports are released, sign up to receive our Housing Research Newsletter.