Canadian Housing Starts Continue Upward Trend in November

OTTAWA, December 8, 2015 — The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 208,401 units in November compared to 206,125 in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“The trend in housing starts increased for a seventh consecutive month due to the multi-unit segment,”  said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. “Rising single home prices continue to support demand for multiples, which are poised to reach the largest proportion of total urban starts since 1971. However, inventory management is necessary to make sure that these units do not remain unsold upon completion.”

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 211,916 units in November, up from 197,712 units in October. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 7.7 per cent in November to 195,121 units. Multi-unit urban starts increased by 13.2 per cent to 137,898 units in November and the single-detached urban starts segment decreased by 3.6 per cent to 57,223 units.

In November, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased in the Prairies, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, but decreased in British Columbia and Québec.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16,795 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

Follow CMHC on Twitter @CMHC_ca

Information on this release:

Karine LeBlanc
CMHC Media Relations

Additional data is available upon request.

Preliminary Housing Start Data
November 2015

October  2015 November 2015
Trend1, all areas 206,125 208,401
SAAR, all areas 197,712 211,916
SAAR, rural areas2 16,571 16,795
SAAR, urban centres3

Single-detached 59,333 57,223
Multiples 121,808 137,898
Total 181,141 195,121
Atlantic, urban centres 6,137 6,293
Quebec, urban centres 31,043 28,456
Ontario, urban centres 72,554 84,537
Prairies, urban centres 37,956 50,328
British Columbia, urban centres 33,451 25,507
Canada November 2014 November 2015
Actual, all areas 17,568 18,907
Actual, rural areas 1,756 1,498
Actual, urban centres

November — Single-detached 5,695 5,288
November — Multiples 10,117 12,121
November — Total 15,812 17,409
January to November — Single-detached 57,705 53,092
January to November — Multiples 100,876 114,965
January to November — Total 158,581 168,057

Source: CMHC
1 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR). By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.
2 CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.
3 Urban centres with a population of 10,000 and over.

Detailed data available upon request



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