Ontario Housing Activity Forecast to Remain Stable in 2016 Before Moderating in 2017
TORONTO, October 26, 2015 — Ontario housing activity is expected to maintain its momentum in 2016 before easing in 2017, according to the Fourth Quarter 2015 CMHC Housing Market Outlook released today. Ontario housing starts are expected to range between 61,000 and 70,500 units in 2016 with a point forecast of 65,100. In 2017, starts are expected to range between 50,000 to 68,000 units with a point forecast of 59,900 units. If homeownership costs and inventories rise faster than expected, new home starts could be closer to the lower end of the forecast range.
Existing homes, being less expensive, will see strong MLS® sales figuring between 193,000 and 235,000 units in 2016 with a point forecast of 207,900 before easing and ranging between of 175,000 and 220,000 units in 2017 with a point forecast of 202,700 units. Ontario home prices are expected to grow at a slower rate over the forecast period.
“Despite improving economic performance, Ontario’s housing market is expected to slow over the forecast period as the cost of owning a home continues to increase,” said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC Regional Economist. “However, some segments of the housing market will do better than others. Homes in south western and southern Ontario markets bordering the GTA tend to be more affordable, thus we expect a lot of activity in those centers as we do for high density housing which includes less expensive rental accommodation”.
As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.
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Ontario MLS® Sales2
Ontario Starts1 (All Areas)
1 The outlook is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Although point forecasts are presented in this publication, CMHC also presents forecast ranges and risks where appropriate. The forecasts included in this document are based on information available as of September 28, 2015, 2015.
2 The term MLS® stands for Multiple Listing Service and is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).